Part of the reason for this post is the discussion which Parick Chovanec, from Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing, was having with Andrew Batson of Gavekal Dragomics . Informative and revealing, Patrick’s conclusion was that China’s GDP growth, 9,2% last year, could effectively fall to 4.2% and that such a fall would constitute a “hard landing” by anyone’s definition.
My response to the discussion was basically confined to my saying that balancing China’s economy might be more important than any sustained high economic growth, which, as we all know, is unsustainable anyway. Moreover, Wen Jiabao’s Government Work Report in March last year, would appear to recognise this fact. Therefore, it is bearing that in mind that I have decided to attach the video above. In it, Minqi Li, who is an Assistant Professor at the University of Utah specializing in Political Economy, World Systems and the Chinese Economy, would, at least, appear to agree that the real issue is not growth per se, but rather how resources might be allocated to redress the structural imbalances in the Chinese economy and, of course, the social injustice which results from those imbalances. That is why, it is how those resources are to be allocated that will not only define not only the ongoing discussion within the CCP itself, but also the course which China will take in the next decade. A decade that might indeed see the end of 8% + growth figures for the sake of a more just society and cleaner environment.